Fig. 3: Projected future changes in GPI and detected TCG frequency.
From: Patterns and frequency of projected future tropical cyclone genesis are governed by dynamic effects
The analyzed domain is in the tropics (30°S–30°N) using the 19 CMIP5 models (19 models under RCP4.5 and 11 models under RCP8.5) and 6 CMIP6 models (4 models under SSP2-4.5 and 6 models under SSP5-8.5). The future change is determined by the reference between the future projection (2075–2099) and the historical simulations (1979–2003). a Box plot for future changes in GPI and TCG for RCP4.5. The boxes represent the range of the mean plus or minus one standard deviation of the intermodal spread in units of percentage changes, which represents the “likely” change. The horizontal red lines show the mean values, and the dashed bars show the 5% and 95% quantiles, representing the range of “very likely” change. b–d As in a, but for RCP8.5, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. e Spatial PCCs between the future changes in ENGPI and TCG frequency (x-axis) compared with those between DGPI and TCG frequency (y-axis). The dots above the blue dashed diagonal line indicate that the spatial pattern of the changes in DGPI is closer to those in TCG than that in ENGPI. f As in e, but for RMSE. The dots below the blue dashed diagonal line indicate that the mean errors of DGPI are smaller than those of ENGPI in representing the TCG frequency.
