Fig. 1: Future climate changes, present-day diversity, and the relationship between future tropical precipitation changes and the present-day Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) size.
From: Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation
a Multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) changes of annual precipitation (shading, mm d−1 °C−1) and 850 hPa wind (vector scale is shown in the bottom right, m s−1 °C−1) in future climate by 38 CMIP6 models under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Stipples represent the area with a high consistency of the sign in future precipitation changes (>80%, 31 of total 38 models have the same sign). Black dashed lines indicate MMEM of IPWP boundary (28 °C isotherms) in the present-day climate. b Inter-model standard deviations of sea surface temperature (SST) (shading) in the present-day. Black dashed lines are the same as in (a), and solid pink lines are the averaged IPWP boundary of the five models with the largest IPWP size, while solid blue lines indicate the same for the smallest IPWP boundary of the five models for the present-day. c The IPWP size (blue bars) and tropical basin SST (red bars) among climate models in the present-day. Black lines in MMEM illustrate one standard deviation of inter-model values. d Inter-model correlations between the projected precipitation changes and the present-day IPWP size among CMIP6 models. In all panels, boxes denote the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific (5°S–5°N, 160°E–150°W, same as Niño 4). Unless otherwise specified, all projected changes are derived from future (2050–2099) minus present-day (1950–1999) values and are normalized by dividing by the global mean surface temperature anomalies of each model.
