Fig. 4: Emergent constraints on the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific (CETP) precipitation changes in CMIP6.
From: Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation
a Projected precipitation changes in the CETP under SSP5-8.5 across the CMIP6 models versus the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) size in the present-day (1950–1999). The solid gray line follows the linear regression of 38 CMIP6 models, while the dashed gray lines indicate prediction errors with one standard deviation (68% confidence intervals). A solid purple line (shading) indicates the average (one standard deviation) of the observed IPWP size among three datasets: HadISST, ERSSTv5, and COBE-SST2. b Probability density functions for the projected precipitation changes in the CETP under SSP5-8.5, before (“CMIP6 prior”, transparent) and after (“after constraint”, opaque) the emergent constraint is applied.
