Fig. 4: Local rainfall coherency.
From: Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies
A Summer SST reconstruction from the Cariaco Basin with above (below) average temperatures indicated in red (blue)71. B Local rainfall coherency index, i.e., multidecadal correlations between detrended carbon and oxygen stable isotope records which exhibit periods of significant positive and insignificant/weakly negative correlation when tested against 1000 AR(1)-realizations with a 90%-confidence level. Periods of negative correlation align well with lower SSTs (yellow shading). Lags in the alignment between summer SST and proxy correlation might be due to chronological uncertainties. C Deviations of seasonal predictability Ï„pred from its long-term mean indicate predictability of local climatic conditions.
