Fig. 4: EBRD’s estimated portfolio-level physical climate risk-induced generation losses for the baseline period and by 2030 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

Generation loss estimates reported in the text in the figure are ensemble medians. The vertical line on each total bar indicates the climate model-induced uncertainties, i.e., the lower bound is the 10th percentile (p10), and the upper bound is the 90th percentile (p90). For thermal plants, the physical climate risks are categorized according to the climatic variables, i.e., air temperature (AT), droughts (DT), floods (FL), water stress (WS), and water temperature (WT). Water temperature bars are divided into two parts with a black horizontal line. The lower part represents the cooling efficiency reduction-caused generation losses, and the upper is generation losses driven by curtailment from cooling water discharge regulation enforcement. There are 80 power plants.