Fig. 1: Main developments in end-use sectors in the net-zero scenarios.

Panel (a) shows the final energy consumption by sector in each net-zero CO₂ emissions scenario, excluding consumption in international aviation. Panel (b) displays the average demand for space heating in terms of kWh per square metre across all residential buildings in Switzerland for the BAU, CLI, ANTI and SECUR scenarios. Panel (c) provides the contribution of the different heating technologies in the residential heating supply in the different scenarios for the year 2020 and 2050. Finally, panel (d) presents the mix of car drivetrains in 2050. The bold numbers at the top of each bar denote the total of the quantities shown in the bar. As shown in the figure, residential and transport sectors bear most of the energy transition effort. The transition requires an accelerated build-up of electric heating and mobility. The share of heat pumps in 2030 in the CLI scenario rises to 35%, before reaching 77% in 2050. In SECUR, heat pumps supply 45% of the space heating demand in 2030 to cope with the reduction of imported gas to half of today’s quantities, and their share reaches 72% in 2050. In transport, the share of electric cars in 2030 must be at least 25% of the total car stock across all scenarios, while by 2050 eight every ten cars in Switzerland run with electricity.