Table 1 Outline of the net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios and the business-as-usual scenario for Switzerland.

From: An assessment of energy system transformation pathways to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in Switzerland

Scenario

Sectoral policies

Social acceptance of new renewables

Swiss-EU energy market integration

Progress in low-carbon and clean technologies

CLI (similar to the amended CO2 Act 2021)

Strengthening of efficiency and emissions standards in buildings, appliances and vehicles; Strengthening of CO2 taxes and Emissions Trading Scheme

Solar PV is highly accepted, while wind turbines are accepted if “not visible from the “balconies”

Assuming full implementation of the energy agreements with the EU

Baseline (median progress)

ANTI (low mobilisation of the population towards climate change mitigation policies)

Continuation of current efficiency and emissions standards in buildings, appliances and vehicles; No strengthening of CO2 taxes and of the Emissions Trading Scheme after 2025

Lower than today, reflecting lower tolerance for landscape changes and failure to accelerate licensing and permitting procedures

Lower than today due to the failure of agreements between Switzerland and the EU (also with other world regions)

Lower than today, reflecting fragmented worldwide climate policies that hamper R&D expenditures

SECUR (energy security by minimising total annual net imports across all energy carriers)

As in CLI

The population is willing to pay for increased security and exploit all domestic renewable resources at their fullest potential aiming at self-sufficiency

Switzerland is to be as close as possible to self-sufficiency on annual net imports by 2050, while for 2030, net imports are halved from today.

Baseline (median progress)

MARKETS (high integration of Switzerland in international markets and good availability of zero-carbon fuels)

As in CLI

Higher than today for wind turbines and new development of bioenergy projects (wood, manure)

Increased integration, reinforcement of grids, cross-border capacities and corridors

Baseline (median progress)

INNOV (derives from MARKETS and assumes accelerated innovation in clean energy technologies)

As in CLI

Higher than today for wind and bioenergy projects (wood, manure)

Increased integration, reinforcement of grids, cross-border capacities and corridors

Higher than baseline, reflecting coordinated worldwide climate policies that foster R&D expenditures

LC (least-cost trajectory variant of CLI)

None—let the optimiser decide the sectoral mitigation efforts

Solar PV is highly accepted, while wind turbines are accepted if not visible from the “balconies”

Assuming full implementation of the energy agreements with the EU

Baseline (median progress)

BAU (business-as-usual)

Continuation of energy policies and carbon taxes of 2020, but no explicit CO2 or other targets

Solar PV is highly accepted; wind turbines are accepted if not visible from the “balconies”

Assuming full implementation of the energy agreements with the EU

Baseline (median progress)

  1. All the net-zero scenarios viz. CLI, ANTI, MARKETS, INNON and LC target to reduce 45% of the CO2 emissions from the Swiss energy system and industrial processes, excluding international aviation, in 2030 from 1990 levels. The 2030 target is equivalent to at least 37.5% GHG emissions reduction in 2030 from 1990 levels. The SECUR scenario goes further in the mitigation effort by achieving 53% CO2 emissions reduction in 2030 from 1990. All the net-zero scenarios achieve zero CO2 emissions in 2050. The business-as-usual scenario does not include energy efficiency, renewable production or climate targets. An additional sensitivity analysis of CLI, which assumes 50 years lifetime for the existing Swiss nuclear power plants, is discussed in Supplementary Note 8. A more detailed description of the scenarios is provided in the “Methods” section.
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