Table 2 Uncertainties considered in storm surge modelling of the 1921 cyclone.
From: The utility of historical records for hazard analysis in an area of marginal cyclone influence
Source of uncertainty | Contributing processes | Estimated error in peak storm surge magnitude (RMSE) | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
Observation error | Inaccuracy in historical accounts, lack of timeliness in recording recollections. | ~0.3 m | Cross-checking of various sources, use of QHDF framework to prioritise observations. |
Mean sea level variation | Seasonal and interannual fluctuations, SLR | ~0.2 m | Lowe et al. 100 |
Hydrodynamic model | Bathymetry, bed roughness, wind drag coefficient | 0.18 m | Tide (local), TC events – Australia wide |
Parametric wind model | Wind Pressure Relationship, second order variations in inflow angle. | ~0.2 m | Vijayan et al. 101 |
Nearshore wave processes | Wave set-up, wave-current interaction | ~0.2 m | Depth limited wave environment. |
Sediment transport processes | Dynamic changes in bathymetry and topography, long term evolution of bathymetry since 1921 | ~0.1 – 0.2 m | Inferred without validation |
