Fig. 3: Model and scenario comparisons.
From: Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence
Comparison of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and GDP per capita growth observations (at the level of World Bank income groups30 in a, c–f; at the global level in b) to: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) projections (run in the International Futures (IFs) model28,29 based on SSP assumptions6,15), IFs base model projections, and differential-equation model (DEM) projections. Global DEM projections in b are aggregated from income-group level projections assuming the United Nations Medium population scenario56. Distributions at right in b–f show the ranges of 2100 GDP per capita projections of 1000 bootstrap runs (see Methods) of the DEM (purple, solid) and asymptotic DEM (purple, dashed) fits, starting in 2020.
