Fig. 4: Projections of rising intensity and frequency of leaf temperature (Tleaf) in excess of the Larix sibirica’s Tcrit.
From: Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin
The percentage of ensemble members and the median number of days per year when Tleaf exceeds different Tcrit thresholds under SSP5-8.5 (a, c) and SSP3-7.0 (b, d). Thresholds shown are the minimum, 10th percentile, 25th percentile and median Tcrit values, assuming that Tcrit also acclimates to warming temperature. Results are computed across 56 ensemble members from 23 CMIP6 earth system models (ESMs). Despite the exceedance of Tcrit by Tleaf generally being a low-probability extreme event due to natural year-to-year climate variability, increases are projected both in the likelihood (percent of ensemble members) and magnitude (number of days/year) of Tcrit exceedances each year starting ~2050 across multiple models and model ensemble members. The solid line in a and b is a 3-yr running average.
