Table 5 Comparison of various databases in response to a question.
From: ChatClimate: Grounding conversational AI in climate science
QAs comparison | ||
|---|---|---|
Standalone IPCC SYR Standalone | ChatClimate (IPCC AR6 reports) | Standalone ChatWMO |
Q2 extra analysis, When will we reach 1.5°C? | ||
The best estimate for reaching 1.5 °C of global warm- ing lies in the first half of the 2030s in most of the considered scenarios and modeled pathways. How- ever, it’s more likely than not that global warming will reach 1.5 °C between 2021 and 2040, even under the very low GHG emission scenario (SSP1-1.9). It’s also likely or very likely to exceed 1.5°C under higher emissions scenarios (Page 33, CLIMATE CHANGE 2023 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers Page 18, Synthesis Report Of The IPCC Sixth Assess- ment Report (AR6) Longer Report Page 56, Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report Summary for Policy-makers). | According to the SR1.5 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming is likely to reach 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. This conclusion is made with high confidence (Reference: IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter01, Page: 44). | Based on the information provided, it is estimated that the annual mean global near-surface temperature could exceed 1.5 °C above 1850–1900 levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027, with a 66% chance of this happening. However, it is less likely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold during the same period (WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023–2027, Page:6). The 1.5 °C level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over many years, and temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures approach the long-term threshold. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, global anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to reach net zero by around 2050 (Integrated Weather and Climate Services in Support of Net Zero Energy Transition (WMO-No. 1312), Page:18). However, there is not enough information to provide a specific year when the 1.5 °C threshold will be consistently exceeded. |
Accuracy: 4 | Accuracy: 3 | Accuracy: 5 |
