Fig. 5: Model-based estimates for H2O trend over the period 1980–2020.
From: Multi-decadal variability controls short-term stratospheric water vapor trends
Panels a–c show WV trends with and without MDVs estimated for the full simulation period (1980–2020) over (a) the entire stratosphere (between the tropopause and 1 hPa), b the lowermost stratosphere (between the tropopause and 100 hPa) and c the stratospheric overworld (between 100 hPa and 1 hPa). The white dots indicate the mean values and the thin and thick bars denote the 95% and 50% confidence intervals, respectively. The dotted lines represent the ranges for trends to reach statistical significance at the 5% level. Annual mean SWV anomalies (∆H2O) are plotted against the annual and global mean surface warming (∆T) calculated for each year from 1980 to 2020 for d the entire stratosphere, e the lowermost stratosphere, and f the stratospheric overworld. Linear fits are plotted when correlations are significant at the 5% level. The SWV anomalies are annual averages from the monthly H2O record after removing seasonality and MDV. Global warming is quantified using the global surface temperature record from NASA/GISS.
