Fig. 4: Simulations and proxy records since the LGM.

Carbon (a) and oxygen (b) isotope records of SAR (Sarma, highland), ABR, and NA caves (lowland). Gray lines indicate winter (DJF) precipitation (a) and winter (DJF) temperature (b) simulated by CESM transient model outputs. Dots show individual samples from NA and ABR caves (U/Th age and mean of duplicate isotope measurements) including 2-σ age uncertainties (black lines), whereas line plots show time series for each isotope record. The gray line in b shows the oxygen-isotope data from Sofular Cave36 (SC). c Transient simulations of δ18O in precipitation based on iTRACE62 and iCESM52 at Sarma cave. MRI-CGCM327 monthly mean change in temperature (d) and precipitation (e) between LGM and PI simulations. f MRI-CGCM3 LGM–PI anomalies in wintertime (DJF) atmospheric structure. Color shading shows the gridded difference in DJF 500-hPa geopotential height between LGM and PI simulations. Dashed and dotted lines are the same as those in Fig. 2a, outlining the modern correlation to a mid-tropospheric dipole that influences δ18OP at our cave sites.