Fig. 3: Attribution of the marine heatwave to thermodynamical climate change.
From: Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean
Summer SST (°C) changes between present-day and PI climates, derived (a) from the nudged storyline simulations (storyline warming) and (b) from the climatological-mean states in the free-running simulations (regional mean change). In a and b, values below the summer GMSST increase of 1 °C (white contour) are in white hatching. c Difference between storyline and regional mean warming, indicating the event-specific change in SSTs. Non-overlapping storyline ensembles in a and non-overlapping storyline warming and regional mean warming in c are in dotted areas (i.e., highly significant signal, see Methods). d Area-averaged SST change (°C) between present-day and PI climates, in the marine heatwave core (black box), coastal region (red box) and central North Pacific (blue box). The storyline change (red bars) is the total marine heatwave change signal, and results from the combined regional mean and event-specific changes (yellow and blue bars respectively). Values below the 1 °C summer GMSST change are grey-shaded.
