Fig. 3: Fire response to the time since conversion to cropland (age of frontier).
From: The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region
Fire probabilities in the Amazon (a–d) and Cerrado (e–h) associated with conversion of forest (a, e), savanna (b, f), grassland (c, g) and pasture (d, h) to cropland, shown as a function of years since the transition (from 1986–2020). The curved response line was estimated based on a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) using an adaptive Gaussian kernel smoothing method (“Methods”). At the moment of conversion (age 0), fire probabilities transition from pre-conversion (marine green) to post-conversion (pink). Time-lagged annual fractions of burned area associated with conversions are represented using boxplots, with each point representing a 2.5-degree cell from the spatial surface grid depicted in Fig. 1.
