Fig. 1: Ensemble mean and spread following weak/ strong polar vortex. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 1: Ensemble mean and spread following weak/ strong polar vortex.

From: Stratospheric impact on subseasonal forecast uncertainty in the northern extratropics

Fig. 1

Ensemble statistics of 1000 hPa geopotential height (Z1000) in S2S ECMWF forecasts with a weak (panel a, average over 169 cases) and strong (panel b, average over 169 cases) initial polar vortex. Contours denote the Z1000 ensemble mean (15 gpm intervals). Shading shows lead-time- and season-aware Z1000 anomalies of ensemble variance.

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