Fig. 4: Decadal anomalies for instrumental- and paleo-records.

Decadal anomalies of the tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction (black line), compared with decadal anomalies of a Instrumental observations of precipitation based on the target meteorological stations utilised for the calibration (1943–2013); b SST anomalies for the Niño 3.4 and c Niño 4 regions for the period 1854–201985; d Andean ice core δ18O record covering the period 1700–2009, obtained by combining ice core δ18O records from Quelccaya (400–2009 CE)17, Huascaran (1894–1992 CE)94, and Sajama (1949–1997 CE)95; e Coral δ18O record from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific covering the period 1886–201615,96. Decadal anomalies were calculated using a 9–14-year band-pass filter. Note that the Y-axes for the filtered SST and ice core δ18O have been inverted to facilitate visual comparison. All Pearson correlation coefficients (r) are significant (p < 0.001). Vertical lines indicate the period used for the calculation of r.