Table 1 Key global benchmarks in assessed mitigation pathways
IPCC category | Variable | Level [Gt CO2e/yr] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 2030 | 2035 | 2050 | 2100 | ||
C1 (n = 70) | Net GHG (direct) | 53.4 [55.2, 52.6] | 28.9 [32.4, 26.0] | 21.1 [24.2, 18.5] | 7.2 [8.7, 5.3] | 1.7 [7.6, −5.9] |
Gross CO2 (direct) | 41.8 [43.7, 40.0) | 24.5 [26.2, 21.1] | 18.1 [20.6, 16.1] | 8.3 [10.1, 7.5] | 5.5 [11.7, 3.9] | |
Non-CO2 | 14.8 [15.2, 14.0] | 9.8 [10.8, 9.3] | 9.0 [9.9, 8.4] | 7.6 [8.9, 6.7] | 6.6 [7.6, 5.3] | |
CDR (direct) | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 5.1 [5.7, 3.9] | 6.1 [7.1, 4.9] | 9.3 [11.5, 7.6] | 11.8 [17.1, 9.5] | |
Novel CDR | 0 [0, 0] | 0.3 [0.6, 0.1] | 1 [1.7, 0.3] | 3.8 [5.7, 1.8] | 7.7 [12.6, 5.7] | |
Conventional CDR on land | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 4 [5.1, 3.4] | 4.8 [5.6, 3.9] | 5.4 [6.3, 3.6] | 3.6 [4.6, 2.2] | |
C2 (n = 102) | Net GHG (direct) | 55.2 [55.7, 53.4] | 41.5 [49.0, 36.0] | 31.4 [36.4, 27.9] | 12.8 [15.5, 9.0) | −5.5 [−2.7, −8.0] |
Gross CO2 (direct) | 43.3 [43.9, 41.5] | 33.5 [39.2, 28.4] | 26.2 [29.3, 22.5] | 12.6 [16.1, 10.7] | 5.3 [7.9, 4.0] | |
Non-CO2 | 14.3 [15.2, 13.8] | 11.8 [13.4, 10.6] | 10.0 [11.0, 9.4] | 8.2 [9.1, 7.7] | 6.0 [7.1, 4.9] | |
CDR (direct) | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 3.2 [4.1, 2.8] | 4.5 [5.6, 3.5] | 8.1 [10.5, 6.5] | 17.6 [19.9, 13.9] | |
Novel CDR | 0 [0,0] | 0.1 [0.2, 0] | 0.3 [0.6, 0.1] | 3.5 [5.8, 1.2] | 13 [15.8, 10.3] | |
Conventional CDR on land | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 3.1 [3.8, 2.7] | 4 [4.5, 3.1] | 5.2 [5.7, 3.7] | 3.5 [5.1, 2.4] | |
C3 (n = 229) | Net GHG (direct) | 53.5 [55.5, 52.5] | 43.1 [49.1, 37.9] | 34.5 [37.6, 29.5] | 18.5 [21.1, 14.1] | 3.8 [8.1, −2.1] |
Gross CO2 (direct) | 42.1 [43.7, 40.0] | 34.0 [39.3, 30.8] | 28.1 [30.3, 24.8] | 16.2 [18.3, 13.8] | 8.7 [12.7, 6.8] | |
Non-CO2 | 14.8 [15.3, 14.0] | 12.2 [13.2, 11.0] | 10.5 [11.4, 9.3] | 8.6 [9.1, 7.2] | 6.8 [7.7, 5.4] | |
CDR (direct) | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 3.2 [4.7, 2.7] | 4.1 [5.5, 3.2] | 6.3 [9.4, 5.5] | 13.5 [17.4, 10.1] | |
Novel CDR | 0 [0, 0] | 0 [0.2, 0] | 0.2 [0.6, 0.1] | 2 [3.6, 0.8] | 9.7 [13.9, 6.3] | |
Conventional CDR on land | 2.5 [2.5, 2.5] | 3.2 [4.5, 2.5] | 3.6 [5, 2.5] | 4 [5.5, 2.7] | 3.4 [4.7, 2.2] | |