Fig. 6: Future probability of exposure to marine heatwaves by 55 TURFs.

Panel a shows the average probability that at least one marine heatwave will occur for each fishery. Panel b shows the relationship between the latitudinal centroid of each TURF and the change in the probability of a future marine heatwave, with colors and markers representing SSP scenarios and species, respectively. Panel c shows the average probability that TURFs will experience another year of extreme events, conditional on there being a marine heatwave (i.e., a year with the same or more cumulative marine heatwave intensity as the maximum recorded, see Table S5). The dashed horizontal line represents the maximum historical probability of occurrence (p = 0.025: 1 event in 40 years on record). Small opaque points in (a) and (c) represent TURF-specific ensemble means from the 11 CMIP-6 models, and colors indicate the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP). The large markers show the average across all TURFs within a given SSP, with a thick portion of the bars showing the standard errors, and error bars showing 95% confidence intervals. Note that the y-axis is truncated in both plots and that they show different scales. Furthermore, note that each species has a different number of polygons associated with it.