Table 1 Overview of the scenario settings

Scenario code	Carbon tax (upper row) & environmental tax (lower row)			CCS promotion	Technology improvement	Cement demand	Cement quality
Scenario code	2020	2030	2060	CCS promotion	Technology improvement	Cement demand	Cement quality
BaU scenarios
BL	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	-	Low	Low
BL-DH	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	-	High	Low
BM	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	-	Low	Medium
BH	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	-	Low	High
Countermeasure scenarios
CM	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	Yes	Low	Medium
CM-CCS-TAX1	0 1.2	0.065 2.1	0.13 4.8	Yes	Yes	Low	Medium
CM-CCS-TAX6	0 1.2	0.39 12.6	2.4 46.8	Yes	Yes	Low	Medium
CL	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	Yes	Low	Low
CL-CCS-TAX1	0 1.2	0.065 2.1	0.13 4.8	Yes	Yes	Low	Low
CL-CCS-TAX6	0 1.2	0.39 12.6	2.4 46.8	Yes	Yes	Low	Low
CH	0 1.2	0 1.2	0 1.2	-	Yes	Low	High
CH-CCS-TAX1	0 1.2	0.065 2.1	0.13 4.8	Yes	Yes	Low	High
CH-CCS-TAX6	0 1.2	0.39 12.6	2.4 46.8	Yes	Yes	Low	High

Note: (1) The carbon tax refers to the average carbon trading price and increases linearly on the basis of the historical increasing trend (TAX1 in the scenario code). The environmental tax is set according to the existing environmental tax policy and increases linearly from 2020 to 2060 to cover the treatment cost by 2030 (TAX1 in the scenario code). High-tax price scenarios (TAX6 in the scenario code) are also considered. For more details, please refer to Supplementary Methods.
(2) The carbon tax and environmental tax are expressed in “CNY/equivalent units of emission,” where an “equivalent unit of emission” = unit emissions × equivalent pollutant value. Different pollutants are transformed into uniform pollution emission influences by setting the equivalent pollutant values according to the degree of harm to the environment and the technical and economic efficiency of measures taken against the pollutants⁴⁹ (see Supplementary Methods and Supplementary Table S3). For example, the equivalent pollutant values of SO₂ and CO are set at 0.95 and 16.7, respectively, which implies that 1.2 CNY/0.95 kg SO₂ has the same degree of influence as 1.2 CNY/16.7 kg CO. In another example, 0.055 CNY/kg CO₂ has the same degree of environmental influence as 1.2 CNY/0.95 kg SO₂.
(3) Cement quality is expressed on the basis of the clinker-to-cement ratio (C2Cr).

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