Fig. 1: Projected changes in hot event probabilities and their key determinants.
From: Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections
a,b Land-based fractional changes in probabilities at 2 ∘C of GW in the mean of model projections (a) and their theoretical representations in the full SN scheme (b). c Fraction (R2) of spatial variation of probability changes, in the model mean (red bars) and spread (black lines), theoretically explained with fully varying parameters (full SN), with constant variability and skewness (rigid shift, RS), and with constant variability and zero skewness (Gaussian shift, GS). d–f Multimodel mean of summer TX warming at 2 ∘C of GW (d), historical TX variability (e) and skewness (f, unitless).
