Fig. 2: Linking future probabilities to historical moments.
From: Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections
a–c Theoretical rates of change in the probability of hot extremes as a function of historical variability and skewness, under the rigid shift approximation of Eq. (6) (Methods) and fixed levels of GW. The TX shifting velocity is held constant and equal to the GW rate for every point of the moment space to disentangle the effects of the higher moments. Symbols denote the pairs of model-simulated historical variability and skewness in the regional mean over pantropical land (30∘N–30∘S, grey squares) and northern midlatitude land (40–65 ∘N, black squares).
