Fig. 3: Observation-constrained projections of probability changes.
From: Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections
a, b Zonal-mean summer TX variability (a) and skewness (b) from BEST data (orange lines) and model simulations for the common historical period (1880–1950). Model results are shown as the mean (MM, thick black lines), total spread (thin black), and interquartile range (IQR, grey-shaded bands). c Conceptual drawing of the observation-constrained flow of thermal distributions with GW, compared to the unconstrained case. d, e BEST-constrained fractional changes in hot event probabilities at 2 ∘C of GW over the observed area (d) and compared in the zonal mean (e, orange line) to bare model projections (shown as the MM, total spread, and IQR as above). Hot event thresholds and probability changes are referenced to 1880–1950. Red boxes in panel d highlight regions with enhanced increases.
