Fig. 4: Scaling of constrained hot-event probabilities with GW.
From: Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections
a–f Regional aggregation of BEST constrained probabilities over the selected areas (Fig. 3d), as a function of changes in GSAT. For each region, the model mean of BEST constrained projections (orange line) is compared to the mean and spread of bare model results (thick black and thin black lines, respectively) and their unconstrained SN representation (in the model mean, red line). The latter shows an almost perfect match with bare model projections in all regions. Stochastic fluctuations in probabilities are filtered out using 40y running averages. Dashed lines at 0.5 probability mark the overshoot of critical climate thresholds, when hot extremes are projected to become the norm.
