Fig. 7: Observational uncertainty in constrained projections.
From: Enhanced risk of hot extremes revealed by observation-constrained model projections
a–f Scaling of constrained hot-event probabilities with GW, based on multiple observational estimates of TX moments, for the same regions as in Fig. 4. Orange, red, and violet lines represent the model mean of probabilities constrained by BEST, HadGHCND, and 20CRv3 data, respectively, while solid and dashed lines indicate the observational period (1951–2000 and 1880–1950, respectively) for TX moments, as in Fig. 6. Grey shading denotes the uncertainty range outlined by constrained probabilities based on BEST late and early historical moments. HadGHCND-based results are displayed only for regions with full (WNA and AUS) and near-full data coverage (MED). Bare model projections are shown as the mean (MM, black lines) and total spread (thin grey lines).
