Table 2 Model fit for models restricted in time/space

AUC reported for subdivisions of the data into year/geographical region for the mechanistic life cycle GAM model. AUC was computed on test sets withholding one year ahead for each of the years 2017 to 2023. Only regions with confirmed Ae. albopictus presence or absence, but no recorded presence previous years are counted. (a) AUC for each of the years 2017–2023. 2019 had no new observations of Ae. albopictus presence. (b) AUC for the years 2017–2023, divided by distance to regions with recorded presence the previous year. (c) AUC by geographical region and by time period, with north: latitude >=50, south: latitude <50, east: longitude >= 10, west: longitude <10.

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