Fig. 6: Current and projected yield gaps (YG-0, YG−1, YG-2, and YG-3) of winter wheat in the three main producing regions (i.e., Huang-Huai-Hai, Southern China, and Xinjiang) of China.

Yield gaps are reported as absolute values (a–c) or as percentages of the potential yield in the baseline period of 1961–2020 (d). Winter wheat yield gaps were projected based on an ensemble of 27 different global climate models (GCMs) in two future periods of 2040s (2021–2060) and 2080s (2061–2100) under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios at stable and changing CO2 levels.