Fig. 1: Atlantic SST and SSS trends in observations and CMIP5/6 models.

a Atlantic SST trend over 1900-2005 (color shading in °C century⁻¹) for the average of six observation datasets (COBESSTv1 and v2, ERSSTv5 and v6, HadISST, and Kaplan Extended SSTv2). b, c Atlantic SST trends over 1900-2005 (color shading in °C century⁻¹) in historical simulations for the MMMs of b 51 AMOC- and c 43 AMOC+ models, respectively. d Atlantic SSS trend over 1955-2005 (color shading in psu century⁻¹) for the average of three observation datasets (EN4, IAP, and Ishii). e, f As in b, c but for the SSS trends over 1900–2005 (color shading in psu century⁻¹). The stipples refer to the regions where trends are statistically significant based on Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. The green (subpolar gyre region; 46–58°N, 49–21°W) and purple (near Gulf Stream region; 41-45°N, 66-40°W) boxes in b, c and e, f are used for FPI calculation. Model drift from the pre-industrial control run has been removed from the model result.