Fig. 1: Spatial validation of the downscaled climate model ensemble.

The maps show the spatial distribution of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the validation period (2005–2014). The MAPE is calculated by comparing the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 model outputs against the ERA5 reference data. The error distributions are shown for: a Peak wave period (pp1d); b Significant height of combined wind waves and swell (swh); and c 100 m wind speed (ws100).