Table 1 Historical LULUCF net emissions and 2030 mitigation summary

From: Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability

	LULUCF GHG Inventory (GtCO₂e/y)				NDCs (GtCO₂e/y)
	2019	2011-2020			2030 net emissions			Mitigation against BAU		Mitigation against historical period (2011–2020)
	Net emissions	Net emissions	Gross emissions^a	Gross removals^a	BAU	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional
World	−2.8 ± 0.8	−2.7 ± 0.7	5.4 (3.9)	−8.2 (−6.9)	−1.2 ± 0.5	−2.9 ± 0.7	−4.2 ± 1.4	−1.7 ± 0.5	−3.0 ± 1.1	−0.2 ± 0.5	−1.5 ± 1.1
AI	−1.7 ± 0.4	−1.9 ± 0.4	0.8 (0.2)	−2.7 (−2.3)	−1.8 ± 0.4	−2.1 ± 0.4	−2.1 ± 0.4	−0.3 ± 0.3	−0.3 ± 0.3	−0.2 ± 0.3	−0.2 ± 0.3
NAI	−1.0 ± 0.6	−0.8 ± 0.6	4.6 (3.6)	−5.5 (−4.6)	0.6 ± 0.4	−0.8 ± 0.6	−2.1 ± 1.4	−1.4 ± 0.4	−2.7 ± 1.1	0.01 ± 0.4	−1.3 ± 1.0

Mitigation disaggregation (GtCO₂e/y)
	BAU mitigation Unconditional		BAU mitigation Conditional		Historical mitigation Unconditional		Historical mitigation Conditional
	Emission reduction	Additional sinks	Emission reductions	Additional sinks	Emission reductions	Additional sinks	Emission reductions	Additional sinks
World	−0.73	−1.00	−1.43	−1.54	−0.31	0.10*	−0.91	−0.55*
AI	−0.07	−0.21	−0.11	−0.18	−0.11	−0.10	−0.11	−0.10
NAI	−0.66	−0.77	−1.32	−1.37	−0.20	0.20	−0.80	−0.45

Net LULUCF emissions (GtCO₂e/y) for the World, Annex I (developed) and non-Annex I (developing) countries, for the year 2019 and for the historical period (2011–2020), with disaggregated gross emissions and gross removals. 2030 scenarios cover Business as Usual (BAU), unconditional and conditional net emissions as net presented in countries’ NDCs and other UNFCCC reports, with a cut-off date of May 2024. LULUCF mitigation is the difference between the pledged net emission scenarios in 2030 (un/conditional) and a baseline: either BAU (Business as Usual projections for 2030) or countries’ own historical average (2011–2020), for the LULUCF sector. Mitigation against a country’s own historical baseline offers more coherent data on LULUCF net emission trends. Mitigation estimates are disaggregated between intended emission reductions (e.g. fire management, avoided deforestation, avoided degradation), and intended additional sinks (e.g. afforestation, reforestation, restoration), as presented in countries’ reports, or derived from their historical disaggregated trends. See methods for further information. Historical net emissions, including year 2019, rely on an update of ref.
^aGross emissions include LULUCF emissions deriving from deforestation and organic soils. ‘Gross’ sinks are the addition of net forest sinks (forest growth and harvest, including carbon stock changes in harvested wood products) and net sinks from croplands, grasslands, and wetlands, mostly due to soil carbon capture.

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Table 1 Historical LULUCF net emissions and 2030 mitigation summary

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