Table 3 LULUCF historical and 2030 mitigation commitments under NDC 2015 and NDC 2020 as provided by countries GHG Inventories and modelled estimates

From: Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability

NDC 2020
	2030 Modelled emissions (GtCO₂e/y)				2030 NDC-country emissions (GtCO₂e/y)
	SYN (2023)^a		EGR (2023)		This study		Forsell et al.		Lamb et al.
	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional
Global emissions in 2030 with LULUCF	55.4 (54–56.9)^b	51.9 (50.4–53.4)	55.1 (53.8–57.1)	51.7 (50–55.3)
2030 global BAU scenario	56.3		56 (52−60)
2030 economy-wide mitigation	−4.4	−4.4	−3.1	−5.9
LULUCF emissions in 2030	2.1	2.1	2.0	1.7	−2.9	−4.2	−4.7	−5.9	−3.9	−4.4
LULUCF emissions in 2019	3.7		3.2		−2.8		−4.0		−2.8
LULUCF mitigation in 2030 (against 2019)	−1.6	−1.6	−1.2	−1.5	−0.1	−1.4	−0.7	−1.9	−1.1	−1.6
LULUCF contribution to global 2030 pledges	36%			25%		25–32%^c		32−43%		27−36%
LULUCF emission discrepancy against 2019					−6.5−6.0^d		−7.7−7.2			−6.1−5.6
LULUCF emission discrepancy against 2030					−5.1−4.9 ^d	−6.3−5.9	−6.8−6.7	−8−7.6	−5.7−5.6	−5.7−5.3

NDC 2015
	2030 Modelled emissions (GtCO₂e/y)				2030 NDC−country emissions (GtCO₂e/y)
	SYN (2016)^e		EGR (2016)		Grassi et al.		Forsell et al.			SYN (2016)
	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional	Unconditional	Conditional		Unconditional		Conditional
Global emissions in 2030 with LULUCF	57.9 (54.4–59.3)^b	56.2 (52–59.3)	56 (54–59)	54 (52–57)
2030 global BAU scenario	61.4		60
2030 economy-wide mitigation	−3.5	−5.2	−4	−6
LULUCF emissions in 2030	2.7	2.7^f			−0.4	−1.1		2.1			−2^f
LULUCF emissions in 2005	3.7				0.8		3				−1
LULUCF mitigation in 2030 (against 2005)		−1^f			−1.2	−1.9		−0.9			−1.1^g
LULUCF contribution to global 2030 pledges		19%				25%^h		15%			18%
LULUCF emission discrepancy against 2005					−2.9		0.3				−4.7
LULUCF emission discrepancy against 2030					−3.1	−3.8			0.7		−4.7

Comparison of LULUCF net emission estimates (GtCO₂e/y) between global reports (Synthesis Report, and UNEP’s Emission Gap Report) (SYN, EGR) that rely on modelled estimates of LULUCF for 2030 (ref. ^{1,2,4,62,63,64,65}), and studies (including This Study) that derive their 2030 estimates from countries’ NDCs reports complemented with other official UNFCCC documents (e.g. Long-term strategies 2050) (Forsell et al. (ref. ^55,56), Lamb et al. see Methods). To allow comparison among studies, we anchor mitigation commitments against year 2019 and 2005. Mitigation estimates thus differ from other values in the text that use other reference years (e.g. historical period 2011–2020). Emissions for year 2019 use a May 2024 update of Grassi et al.’s LULUCF GHG Inventories (ref. ³¹), and bookkeeping modelled estimates, extracted from the global reports. See SI Table S18 for further details on this table.
^aBased on 168 country submissions (up to 25 Sep 2023), representing 195 Parties and 94.6% of global emissions (ref. ¹)
^bEstimates represent median (minimum-maximum range)
^cAgainst the economy-wide conditional mitigation commitment estimated by the EGR for this study (e.g. −5.9 GtCO2e/y) and SYN (2023) (−4.4 GtCO₂e/y).
^dRanges capture SYN (2023) and EGR (2023) variability.
^eBased on 161 country submissions (up to 4 April 2016), covering 189 Parties to the Convention, representing c. 99 per cent of the emissions of all Parties to the Convention. (ref. ²)
^fFigure 1 and paragraph 19 of the Technical Annex of the Synthesis Report (2016) (ref. ⁶⁶).
^gNote 45, SYN (2016) (ref. ²).
^hData from Grassi et al. (ref. ¹⁹).

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Table 3 LULUCF historical and 2030 mitigation commitments under NDC 2015 and NDC 2020 as provided by countries GHG Inventories and modelled estimates

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