Fig. 5: Comparisons of fractional circa 2020 independent smallholder supply shed fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production and reported supply received by palm oil mills across Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia.

These include (A) the estimated proportional contribution of independent smallholders to total supply shed FFB production across Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certified (n = 250) or noncertified (n = 917) mills, (B) the proportional contribution of independent smallholders to total FFB supply to the balanced panel of sampled RSPO certified mills (n = 72 mills) as reported in RSPO audit reports, and the difference between A and B for the balanced panel of sampled certified mills (C) or just those mills that sourced from independent smallholders (D), where negative values indicate more production than reported supply. For C, D we present results under scenarios assuming that mills sourced from all smallholders or only smallholders outside of the State Forest, and compare the group mean to zero [dashed line] rather than the means of the groups to one another. We use a 20 km radius to define the supply shed. The lower and upper hinges represent the first and third quartiles, the upper (lower) whisker extends to the largest (smallest) value no further than 1.5 times the inter-quartile range, the bar represents the median, and the symbol above the bracket or box denotes the significance level of the p-value (ns = 0.05 ≤ p, * = 0.01 ≤ p < 0.05, ** = 0.001 ≤ p < 0.01, *** = 0.0001 ≤ p < 0.001, **** p < 0.0001) derived from t-tests.