Table 1 Climate shock scenario design

From: Variable renewable energy pathways in the Lower Mekong Basin under projected river flow extremes

Scenario name

Severity

Scenario description

Normal conditions

/

Represents baseline streamflow conditions, directly sampled from a distribution fitted to historical data. Assumes future streamflow will remain fully consistent with historical patterns.

EPLFs (Extended Periods of Low Flows)

• 100-year

• 1,000-year

• 10,000-year

Simulates drought conditions by sampling from a shifted distribution based on historical low-flow events. Assumes future streamflow will experience severe droughts with different return periods.

EPHFs (Extended Periods of High Flows)

• 100-year

• 1,000-year

• 10,000-year

Simulates extreme high-flow (flood) conditions with different return periods.