Fig. 1: Optimisation of seasonal forecast skill (N-RMSE) of seasonal European heatwave indicators (NDQ90) using data from a paleoclimate simulation.
From: Feature selection for data-driven seasonal forecasts of European heatwaves
The training period and test period are 0–1650 and 1601–1850 respectively. Two examples of optimisation are shown: 43.13° E, 58.76° N (poor, upper cluster of solutions) and 24.38° E, 41.97° N (good, lower cluster). Symbols and colours represent stages of optimisation (latest stages in red), with the “optimal” solution (black circle) corresponding to the solution with the lowest training N-RMSE. The diagonal (dashed grey) represents a perfect fit between training and test scores, while the vertical and horizontal lines at N-RMSE = 1 indicate where the error is equivalent to interannual variability (Supplementary Fig. 5).
