Fig. 6: Forecasts of summer heatwave indicators over northern Italy.
From: Feature selection for data-driven seasonal forecasts of European heatwaves
NDQ90 in ERA5 (black) is compared to the full ensemble (120 members) of the dynamical systems (C3S Ensemble) and the data-driven approach with three high-performing ML models (Linear Regression, DD-LR; AdaBoost, DD-AB; Light Gradient Boost, DD-LGB). Boxplots represent the medians, interquartile ranges and maxima and minima for each forecast year in the C3S Ensemble. The correlation skill scores over the 1993–2016 period are as follows: C3S ensemble median (0.63), DD-LR (0.74), DD-AB (0.78) and DD-LGB (0.76). The box used to define northern Italy is shown in Supplementary Fig. 10.
