Fig. 4: Proxy-based reconstructions of climate and environmental changes in north-eastern China.

A Reconstructed annual warm season temperature at Beijing deriving from speleothem records78; B Annual mean precipitation and uncertainty in north-eastern China deriving from natural pollen data (MAP N-set76,109). C Pollen based reconstructed EASM precipitation and uncertainty (light blue shaded color area) with local regression (LOESS, grey shaded envelope) at Gonghai Lake (North China)75. D Reconstructed Yellow River run-off dynamics deriving from upstream tree ring records for the period 800–1900 CE77; E for the period 800–907/908 CE77. Using dynamic binning techniques based on data variance (see methods), 53 bins were determined between 800 and 907/908 CE that characterize above normal run-off (potential flooding) (blue) or below normal run-off (potential hydrological drought) (red) probability. Dashed line = general mean value; grey solid line = Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS, span= 0.07 (D, across the full record) and 0.08 (E, across the subset)).