Fig. 1: Drivers of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance anomalies.
From: Atmospheric rivers and winter sea ice drive recent reversal in Antarctic ice mass loss
a Black: Monthly cumulative GMB anomalies from April 2002 to December 2024, based on GRACE (with respect to the mass as of 2011-01-01 before being subtracted from the GMB anomaly in April 2002 to show the changes since the mission launch). Dotted: Monthly cumulative SMB anomalies based on ERA5 from April 2002 to April 2025 (ERA5), December 2024 (HCLIM43) and December 2023 (RACMO2.4p), all with respect to the 1995-2010 mean, before subtracting their SMB from April 2002 (as for GRACE). Light straight solid lines indicate linear trend slopes from 2003 to 2019, and 2020 to 2024 (2023 for RACMO2.4p), with trends printed in the respective colour (all trend slopes are significant with p < 0.05). The small change in the grey line’s angle around 2017 reflects the 1-year GRACE - GRACE-FO gap. Red time series: Grounding line discharge from8 based on bed topography and velocity measurements from 1996 through to July 2024 (see ‘Methods’). b AR frequency and 10m zonal winds based on ERA5. Maps below show linear trends of GMB (c, f), SMB (d, g), and discharge (e, h) per basin for the two time periods. Basins are greyed out where the trend is not significant (p < 0.05). Drainage basins follow Zwally et al.52 as shown in Supplementary Fig. 952.
