Abstract
Invasive species affect freshwater ecosystems and economies worldwide, with their dispersal facilitated by human activities such as shipping and large water transfer projects. Here, we use the golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei) as a model species and develop an integrated framework that combines a dispersal model for introduction risk with a species distribution model for establishment risk, using global shipping routes and water diversion projects as the main pathways. Our simulations reveal an expansion of high-risk basins over time, particularly after the 1990s, with coastal basins acting as invasion bridgeheads from which populations can spread inland. Several basins in North America, Europe, Australia, the Indochina Peninsula and the Amazon basin, although not yet invaded, emerge as environmentally suitable and increasingly connected, indicating elevated future invasion risk. Our study highlights the importance of implementing management strategies for invasive species, such as ballast water treatment and installing prevention measures in water diversion/transfer schemes.
Data availability
All relevant data used in this study, including occurrence records of Limnoperna fortunei, global shipping routes and inter-basin water diversion/transfer project data, have been deposited in Figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30938933).
Code availability
The R code used to implement the invasion risk model and to generate the main analyses and figures has been deposited in Figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30938933).
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Acknowledgements
The study was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3200905 and 2021YFC3200902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2243222), and the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering Project (No. sklhse-TD-2024-E01).
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Jiahao Zhang performed data analysis and visualization and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. Mengzhen Xu designed the study, carried out data analysis, and revised the manuscript. Aibin Zhan carried out data analysis and revised the manuscript. Chunlong Liu analysed invasion records and revised the manuscript. He Tian revised the manuscript. Gustavo Darrigran provided and curated data from South America and revised the manuscript. Zhaoyin Wang and Xudong Fu revised the manuscript.
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Communications Earth and Environment thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Haihan Zhang and Joseph Aslin. A peer review file is available.
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Zhang, J., Xu, M., Zhan, A. et al. Shipping and water diversion pathways expand the global area at risk from invasive freshwater bivalves. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03256-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03256-x
