Abstract
The pulp and paper industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption, underscoring the urgent need for effective decarbonization strategies. Here, we estimate the current lifecycle emissions intensity and energy cost of the United States industry at 3.12 short tons of equivalent carbon dioxide and 289.79 United States dollars per short ton of finished product, respectively. We provide projections through 2050 by combining lifecycle assessment, scenario-based modeling, and learning curve model. The analysis shows the importance of improving waste management, boosting recycling rates, and reducing purchased energy. Achieving net zero was demonstrated to be challenging, as the maximum achievable reduction in lifecycle emissions was only 15% across all simulated scenarios. Simulations reveal that a strategy centered on carbon capture, utilization, and storage offers long-term sustainability and superior resilience to systemic uncertainties compared to broad-spectrum aggressive adoption. These findings emphasize rapidly adopting green innovations.
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Data availability
The publicly accessible data that was analyzed during the current study was summarized and is available in the Git Hub repository: https://github.com/JChen-UTK/PPI-LCA.git. The site-specific data on United States domestic pulp and paper production was provided by FisherSolve, which is now part of ResourceWise. To obtain access, please visit their website: https://www.resourcewise.com/markets/forest-products/fisher-international-is-now-part-of-resourcewise.
Code availability
The code files on the projections of different scenarios have been uploaded to the Git Hub repository: https://github.com/JChen-UTK/PPI-LCA.git.
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Jingwei Chen conceived the study, designed the research framework, developed the mathematical models and software code, performed the lifecycle assessment and scenario simulations, analyzed the data, wrote the original draft of the manuscript and reviewed and edited the final manuscript. Mingzhou Jin conceived the study, designed the research framework, supervised the project, provided continuous guidance on the methodology, and reviewed and edited the final manuscript.
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Chen, J., Jin, M. Evaluating adoption strategies for green innovations to decarbonize the United States pulp and paper industry. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03409-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03409-y
