Abstract
Rapid-onset flash droughts may cause devastating impacts on both ecosystems and human communities. We found that widely used multispectral satellite methods typically failed to capture the initial physiological response of forests to flash drought. Using a 3D radiative transfer model, we showed that canopy reflectance remained largely unchanged in the early stages of flash drought, even when upper-canopy leaves were wilting. We developed a new method based on a two-source energy balance model (TSEB-SM) driven by satellite infrared and soil moisture observations to capture water-flux dynamics in forests affected by flash drought. TSEB-SM tracked early-stage flash drought dynamics in China, where 8-daily transpiration declined by mean values of 14% (summer) and 6% (autumn) during the first two weeks of flash drought. Our results demonstrate that satellite-driven energy balance models can accurately track the temporal response of forests to flash drought, providing new tools for forest management in a warming climate.
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Acknowledgements
The ground observations of water and carbon flux data were collected and made freely available from FLUXNET 2015 dataset. We would like to thank all the scientists, engineers, and students who participated in the observations.
Funding
L.S.S. acknowledges National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42071298) and Open Cooperation Foundation of Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligence Monitoring and Restoration of Watershed Environment (No. KF-202511). S.M.L. acknowledges National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 20237FF1303503).
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Song, L., Guan, Z., Liddell, M. et al. Early forest water stress detection using thermal infrared energy balance modeling during flash drought. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03638-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03638-1
