Fig. 1: Disagreement between global water models for three key water fluxes.

a–c, Left: maps showing the coefficient of variation, calculated per grid cell as the ensemble standard deviation divided by the ensemble mean of eight global water models for different water fluxes: actual evapotranspiration (a), groundwater recharge (b) and total runoff (c). Lighter areas (‘blank spaces’) indicate high coefficients of variation (CoV) values and thus show where models disagree most. d–f, Right: maps showing which model deviates most from the ensemble mean for each grid cell for different water fluxes: actual evapotranspiration (d), groundwater recharge (e) and total runoff (f). Dark grey areas in d–f indicate that multiple models deviate similarly strongly from the ensemble mean. Empty, blank areas in d–f indicate that no model deviates strongly from the ensemble mean. The percentages shown in d–f refer to the fraction of grid cells (not land area) covered by each model. Greenland is masked out for the analysis.