Fig. 6: Scoping estimate of present and future US energy demand for controlled environment agriculture (CEA).

Aggregate national CEA energy use is estimated by applying average energy intensities from this meta-analysis to US current and projected CEA output plus net imports. Excludes crops known to be grown in CEA but for which sufficient energy data are unavailable: blueberries, chard, eggplant, string beans, hemp, floriculture, ornamental plants, and home cultivation or greenhouses for producing transplant starts for any crop. To derive the estimate for current CEA cultivation, crops are mapped to the dominant facility types in today’s market (plant factories for mushrooms and microgreens, other food crops to greenhouses, and cannabis to a 36% plant factory/27% greenhouse mix per Mills³¹. In each future-oriented scenario, crops are progressively mapped to higher-yield facilities at maximum penetration so as to define an upper limit of potential energy use. The sole identified estimate for national energy use for open-field food crops is 528 PJ/y⁹⁴. Estimated current-day total CEA energy use is 735 PJ/y, 0.9% of 2023 US final energy consumption. These results are expressed in terms of energy consumed at the site, enabling focus on facility performance and processes therein, independent of the thermal losses or fuel-mix of upstream power-generation. Scenarios exclude energy use for staple crops such as grains, legumes, and root crops, nuts, and most fruits, which are not suitable for CEA and thus continued to be grown in open-field conditions. Data and assumptions in Table S5.