Fig. 3: Comparison of AWE-GEN simulations and GEV distributions in capturing record-breaking rainfall events across five durations (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h) for ten representative stations.

The locations of these stations are: a Kashiwazaki, Niigata, Japan (69-year record); b southeastern New Mexico, USA (57-year record); c eastern Switzerland, near Säntis Mountain (31-year record); d near Forres, Moray, Scotland (60-year record); e near Oshima, Tokyo, Japan (69-year record); f Basel, Switzerland (31-year record); g Gifu, Japan (128-year record); h Fayetteville, North Carolina, USA (50-year record); i near Arecibo on the northern coast of Puerto Rico (49-year record); and j northwest Houston, Texas, USA (28-year record). Panels on the left (a, c, e, g, i) show cases where AWE-GEN fails to capture the record-breaking events within the 5–95th percentiles at the 100-year return period (“Failure”); panels on the right (b, d, f, h, j) show cases where AWE-GEN successfully captures the record-breaking events within the 5–95th percentiles at the 100-year return period (“Success”). Blue shaded areas represent percentile ranges of the 100 AWE-GEN simulations; the solid line shows the fitted GEV distribution, and dashed lines indicate its 5–95th confidence interval.