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  • Review Article
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Feasibility, cost and decarbonization potential of clean pathways for heavy-duty road transportation

Nature Reviews Clean Technology volume 1, pages 846–860 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Battery electric trucks (BETs), fuel-cell electric trucks (FCETs) and low-carbon liquid fuels (such as biodiesel and e-diesel) have been suggested as approaches to decarbonize heavy-duty transportation. However, technical and economic barriers limit their broader implementation and, owing to the diverse uses of heavy-duty vehicles, their application must be tailored to the needs of the fleet. In this Review, we discuss the technological feasibility, costs and decarbonization potential of these technologies and approaches, focusing on China, Europe and the United States. Despite emissions associated with their production, BETs and FCETs could reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions by 27–58% relative to diesel trucks and could meet more than 35% and 67%, respectively, of current daily travel needs of conventional tractor-trailers without charging or refuelling, potentially exceeding 88% with an intermediate stop to charge or refuel. There is substantial uncertainty in the emission reduction potential from indirect land-use changes associated with biodiesel and e-fuels. There are high CO2 abatement costs (US$490–600 per tonne of CO2) for BETs in Europe and the United States, but they are projected to achieve cost parity with diesel trucks before 2030. FCETs have higher energy density than BETs, which would be beneficial for long-haul applications, but cost associated with green hydrogen accessibility is a challenge. Technological innovation and new regulations and incentives are needed to promote increased uptake of these technologies.

Key points

  • Heavy-duty fleets have varying travel demands. Tractor-trailers for long-haul freight have the biggest decarbonization challenges.

  • Improved battery density could enable more than 70% of battery electric trucks (BETs) to meet diesel truck mileage without an additional charge. New business models that are being piloted, such as battery renting, could increase the use of BETs.

  • BETs can reach 27–58% reductions in life-cycle CO2 emission compared with diesel trucks, in China, Europe and the United States. The life-cycle emissions of fuel-cell electric trucks (FCETs) are highly sensitive to the hydrogen carbon intensity.

  • As grids decarbonize, FCETs will need to depend on renewable hydrogen to be competitive with BETs in terms of life-cycle CO2 emissions. However, the energy efficiency of using hydrogen is 3–4 times lower than using the electricity directly.

  • BETs currently offer a lower carbon abatement cost than FCETs in China, Europe and the United States.

  • ‘Total cost of ownership’ analyses suggest that BETs could achieve cost competitiveness with diesel heavy-duty vehicles by 2030, whereas FCETs are projected to reach cost parity with diesel trucks by 2040 because of higher costs associated with fuel-cell stacks, hydrogen storage, hydrogen production and transport. In markets where BETs will potentially address both technical and cost barriers a decade earlier, the space available for FCET fleets will shrink, leading to higher infrastructure costs per vehicle.

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Fig. 1: Types and uses of heavy-duty vehicles.
Fig. 2: Travel demand and EED of different heavy-duty fleets.
Fig. 3: Life-cycle CO2 emissions and TCO of heavy-duty tractor-trailers.

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Datasets and results are provided in the Supplementary Information.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2022YFC3703600, Y.W.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52170111, S.Z.) and Energy Foundation China (grant no. G-2310-35151, S.Z.) for support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Shaojun Zhang, Pei Zhao, Fang Wang & Ye Wu

  2. Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing, China

    Shaojun Zhang & Ye Wu

  3. Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Beijing, China

    Shaojun Zhang & Ye Wu

  4. Senseable City Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Pei Zhao

  5. International Council on Clean Transportation, Berlin, Germany

    Hussein Basma & Felipe Rodriguez

  6. Center for Sustainable Systems, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Timothy J. Wallington & Gregory A. Keoleian

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Contributions

S.Z. and Y.W. designed the research. P.Z., F.W., H.B. and F.R. researched data for the article. H.B., T.J.W., G.A.K. and Y.W. provided substantial contribution to discussion of content. S.Z., P.Z. and F.W. wrote the paper. All authors reviewed and edited the manuscript before submission.

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Glossary

Biodiesel

A renewable diesel substitute produced from biomass-derived oils or fats through transesterification. It can be blended with conventional diesel or used in pure form (B100) in compression–ignition engines.

Carbon abatement cost

The marginal cost of reducing 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent, typically expressed as US$ per tCO2 eq, calculated by dividing the incremental cost of a mitigation option by its emission reduction relative to baseline.

E-diesel

A synthetic fuel produced using captured CO2 and green hydrogen via Fischer–Tropsch or similar processes. It is a form of e-fuel designed to be drop-in compatible with existing diesel engines.

Heavy-duty vehicles

Motor vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of >3.5 tonnes that are primarily used for freight and commercial transport.

Total cost of ownership

The sum of all direct and indirect costs incurred during a vehicle’s lifetime, including purchase price, energy/fuel, maintenance, insurance and residual value.

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Zhang, S., Zhao, P., Wang, F. et al. Feasibility, cost and decarbonization potential of clean pathways for heavy-duty road transportation. Nat. Rev. Clean Technol. 1, 846–860 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44359-025-00119-0

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