Fig. 4: Direct and indirect steel sector jobs over time for each scenario.
From: Strategising steel sector capacities and employment in the Global South: the case of South Africa
We provide a regional estimate per province in Supplementary Fig. 1 and direct jobs in the power sector in Supplementary Fig. 3. Indirect jobs include power sector jobs to meet energy demand from steel, as well as jobs associated with iron ore and coal mining. The model’s job module captures employment in manufacturing, construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and supply (see SI for detailed information). In all four scenarios, indirect jobs gain in importance for overall employment over time. In the high-demand scenarios, low-carbon steel starts to crowd out fossil steelmaking jobs from 2030 onwards. When competition for H2 with other sectors is high, jobs for the DRI-NG buildup bridge the gap before this capacity is converted to H2-DRI, as well. Even in a scenario with lower demand and without ambitious emissions targets (BAU LDS), both direct and indirect low-carbon steel jobs play a larger role than fossil steel jobs from 2040 onwards. In both high-demand scenarios, we observe two spikes associated with the ramp-up of hydrogen and H2-DRI equipment.
