Figure 1

National-level forecast metrics.
National-level incidence is shown during the training period (1985–1989) and evaluation period (1990–2007). (A) For each of 39 models considered, the MAE (B) and R2 (C) values for prospective forecasts over the entire evaluation period are shown for each prediction horizon (dark red to yellow, corresponds to 1–6 months). For models including lagged weather covariates, forecasts were not possible at prediction horizons beyond the lag and are not shown. An equivalent plot for each state is shown in Figure S1.