Figure 4 | Scientific Reports

Figure 4

From: Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

Figure 4The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Prospective prediction evaluation over the 5-year validation period (2008–2012).

The local (red) and common (blue) 3-month ahead forecasts are compared to reported dengue incidence (black, dashed lines) (A). The relative MAE compares the local model (red) to the common model (blue) over the entire 5-year validation period for individual locations (B). Values less than one indicate decreased error, i.e. improved performance, of the local model relative to the common model. Across all locations the number of locations in which the local model is more accurate than the common model declines at increasing prediction horizons (C) (red = local, blue = common, grey = the local and common models are the same). The relative MAE over all locations for the local model increases at longer prediction horizons.

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