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Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth

Global carbon dioxide intensity declined from 2015 to 2024 following the Paris Agreement, but total emissions still increased due to economic growth, according to a global analysis of population, gross domestic product, and carbon emissions data.

Jitong Jiang
Skylar Shi
Adrian E. Raftery
ResearchOpen Access17 Oct 2025
Communications Earth & Environment

Volume: 6, P: 1-11
Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target

The probability of not exceeding the 2 °C climate warming target if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions lies at around 26%, according to an analysis with a statistically-based probabilistic framework.

Peiran R. Liu
Adrian E. Raftery
ResearchOpen Access09 Feb 2021
Communications Earth & Environment

Volume: 2, P: 1-10
Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO₂ emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

Adrian E. Raftery
Alec Zimmer
Peiran Liu
Research31 Jul 2017
Nature Climate Change

Volume: 7, P: 637-641
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO₂

Coupling advances in socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions and discounting methods yields an estimate of the social cost of carbon of US$185 per tonne of CO₂—triple the widely used value published by the US government.

Kevin Rennert
Frank Errickson
David Anthoff
ResearchOpen Access01 Sept 2022
Nature

Volume: 610, P: 687-692
Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

Exposure to dangerous heat index levels will likely increase by 50-100% in the tropics and by a factor of 3-10 in the mid-latitudes by 2100, even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 2°C is met, according to probabilistic projections of global warming.

Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello
Adrian E. Raftery
David S. Battisti
ResearchOpen Access25 Aug 2022
Communications Earth & Environment

Volume: 3, P: 1-7
Spectral Analysis Assessment of Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia in Normal Infants and Infants Who Subsequently Died of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome

Karen A Kluge
Ronald M Harper
David P Southall
Research01 Dec 1988
Pediatric Research

Volume: 24, P: 677-682

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Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth

Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2

Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

Spectral Analysis Assessment of Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia in Normal Infants and Infants Who Subsequently Died of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome

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Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO₂