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Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles.

Current European Union policies are insufficient to achieve residential heating decarbonization targets. Substantial subsidies for heat pumps and carefully targeted incentives for home renovation are critical to efficiently and affordably meet climate goals. We emphasize the importance of adapting strategies to national contexts.

This analysis shows that demand-side policies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050, with electrification having the greatest impact. Adopting a mix of strategies offers benefits for the overall energy system.

Decarbonizing the residential sector is essential for net-zero targets, and the EU has established ambitious policy packages with various instruments. This research shows that beyond carbon trading programmes, massive heat-pump subsidies and targeted energy renovation incentives are needed.

Future energy demand maybe induced by climate change and subject to uncertainties arising from different extent of climate change and socioeconomic development. Here the authors follow a top-down approach and combined the recently developed socio-economic and climate scenarios and found that across 210 scenarios, moderate warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation by 25–58% between 2010 and 2050.

The Paris Agreement requires reaching net-zero carbon emissions, but a debate exists on how fast this can be achieved. This study establishes scenarios with different feasibility constraints and finds that the institutional dimension plays a key role for determining the feasible peak temperature.

This study considers how large-scale application of solar panels will affect climate. Electricity generation leads to regional cooling but this is countered by the power’s use, affecting global circulation patterns with changes in regional rainfall.

Delaying climate mitigation requires large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century, with possible adverse effects. Under scenarios with no dependence on CDR technologies, this study examines the short- and long-term implications of climate mitigation for land-use and food systems.

Climate impact models have a limited ability to represent risks to the poor and vulnerable. Wider adoption of best practices and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms are needed to address this shortcoming.

Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit.

Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.

Projects are under way for direct-current ultra-high-voltage transmission lines that would allow trading of renewable electricity across world regions. Guo et al. use integrated assessment models to explore different scenarios for the operation of these projects and assess their potential for decarbonization.

Energy system scenarios to meet climate mitigation goals rarely explore the evolution of energy access and equity. Now, Poblete-Cazenave et al. show that, under many baseline and decarbonization scenarios, energy access for people in Africa and South Asia remains insufficient.

Major shifts in the structure, the levels and the locations of energy use were observed during COVID-19 lockdowns. However, uncertainty remains about the persistence and thus the long-term effects of these changes on the energy system. Kikstra et al. now present various energy scenarios that build on observed changes in energy use to achieve a low-emission global future.

The SSP–RCP scenario framework has been an important component of physical, social and integrated climate change research for the past decade. This Perspective reviews the successes of the framework and the challenges it faces, and provides suggestions for improvement moving forward.