Global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than found in climate model simulations. A detailed analysis of observations and climate model simulations suggests that the observed influence of volcanic eruptions on tropospheric temperature has been significant, and that the discrepancy between climate simulations and observations is reduced by up to 15% when twenty-first century volcanic eruptions are accounted for in the models.
- Benjamin D. Santer
- Céline Bonfils
- Frank J. Wentz
